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The Rise of East Asia: Threat or Opportunity

In my own view, it would be a mistake of the Chinese government in response to occasional demonstrations, unattractive as they are, or Japanese Nationalist, to encourage outburst of Chinese Nationalism. I hope that both sides can learn to exchange a little history, and on the Japanese side, to see less denial and a little more apology.

The real trigger in my judgment for Japan's anxiety today is simply this - twenty years ago, China represented between a tenth or a twentieth of the Japanese economy. Today, it represents a quarter, and catching up rapidly and that growing economy have, you've seen in the relations to the great train robbery, has had consequences for China's need for commodities and in particular for energy. And the Japanese look with nervousness at Chinese arguments of exploration rights in offshore waters. It reflects, in my view, a far greater concern, than the questions of whether or not the disagreement between Taiwan and China will lead to hostilities. I think both sides in relations to that dispute understand just how far it can stretch the elastic band without it snapping. I don't think one should take too seriously occasional speeches by Chinese generals. In my own experience, there are very few countries where general can always be guaranteed to make speeches of great political sophistication.

I also think that Taiwanese politicians should be encouraged by those who wish Taiwan well, not to flirt in too provocative a way with the symbol of sovereign independence. I have to believe that the relationship of Taiwan and China will depend ultimately on political change in China since, I cannot off hand think of any example in history where people have willingly chosen the less participatory government from the one currently enjoy.

So it's not Taiwan that most concerns me. It is the relationship between China's commodity driven diplomacy, its need for oil and gas, on the one hand and the existing international order. That international order does of course; have to recognize that the Trans-Atlantic community that Europe in the back seat, and America in the front, can no longer set the global agenda as we did for 40 or 50 years after the World War II. I can think of no serious problems that the world faces today that we can tackle without the involvement of China and India. Proliferation, or the environment or terrorism, you name it. The last round of Doha Trade Talk in Hong Kong was saved from disaster, which would have been blamed on the European Union by the intervention of the Indian trade minister.

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