Can Taiwan's Economic Miracle Persevere?
With
the emergence of bigger and bigger businesses, which
is inevitable due to the need for high cap and high
tech plus the privatization of government-owned businesses,
Taiwan needs to be on the lookout for its "politicized
businessmen" wielding undue power and authority over
matters strictly in the domain of the government.
We have already seen officials or legislators serving
as hit-man or consultant for Big Business, or businessmen
serving in legislature or official capacities-all
with potential for conflict of interest.
We cannot
let big business corrupt or control the government
process.
THE SOLUTION AND CONCLUSION
Now let's try to answer
the three questions posed earlier. Would Taiwan follow
in Japan's footsteps? In spite of some similarities,
perhaps not. Japan is seriously burdened with a highly
protected and inefficient economic structure, a four-decade-old
one party rule, deeply entrenched bureaucracy ill-equipped
to accommodate legitimate business needs, labor unions
that resist industrial upgrade, and a corporate community
that refuses badly needed restructuring. Japan, Inc.
is just too helplessly paralyzed and unable to confront
the vested interests to effect necessary reforms such
as opening its market and expanding domestic competition.
Japan's hardship is more entrenched. Taiwan's structure
is more open, flexible, and has an army of very efficient
small and medium businessmen to lead the charge. Big
businesses are relatively newcomers and not yet out
of control.
Are Taiwan's problems
caused by the Asian economic crisis? Taiwan's foreign
exchange reserve is still very substantial (about
$90 billion) and it hardly has any foreign debt (a
meager $250 million) to make it vulnerable to the
impact of the crisis. Taiwan's malaise is more deep-rooted
in the infrastructure problems and it actually started
before the economic crisis. Its bank capital adequacy
ratio is above international average. Its small and
medium enterprises are crisis-proof.
The key question is:
will the miracle persevere? Taiwan has come to another
critical crossroads. This time around, we don't think
we can expect the luck, coincidence, or accident that
saved and helped us before to be there again. This
time it is going to take real planning, and real action
to pull us through, particularly from the government
insofar as providing the indispensable infrastructure,
probably more in accounting, regulatory, banking,
taxation, fiscal, monetary, environmental and social
welfare systems than anything else. It also calls
for the government to come up with a forward-looking,
full-scaled, balanced, global and long-term industrial
policy to overhaul the industrial structure that will
carry Taiwan successfully into the 21st century.
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