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The Taiwan-China Relation : The Dilemma of Political Confrontation and Economic Interdependence.
Some more medium and
larger-size businesses followed suit. The overwhelming
power of such a trend and the practical problems and
needs that resulted had now pushed the authorities
to grudgingly set up some diplomatically unofficial,
but in reality governmental or quasi-governmental
institutes in 1991 to deal with the related bilateral
affairs, such as the Mainland Affairs Council and
the straits Exchange Foundation.
Statistics show business
activities between the two countries were mind-boggling.
The chart shows that in the year of 1995, trade exceeded
$20 billion, a huge jump from $1 billion in 1987 when
Taiwan first allowed its residents to visit the mainland.
The average annual growth rate during the period was
an astonishing 40%. In just a few short years, China
had become Taiwan's second largest export market and
third largest trading partner. China became Taiwan's
largest source of trade surplus. Taiwan provided China
with the tremendous amount of material and goods to
add value for exportation. China thus in turn exported
$24.8 billions of goods in world markets. The next
chart highlights Taiwan's over-dependence on China
in terms of its exports in 1998. Taiwan's foreign
trade surplus totaled $7.2 billion of that $22.8 billion
came from net trade surplus with China. This huge
net trade surplus with China represented as much as
9% of Taiwan's GDP. This means otherwise without the
surplus of China, Taiwan would have a $15.6 billion
trade deficit.
By
1995 Taiwan's investment in China had accumulated
to over $11 billion (with another $19 billion under
contract) and numbered 30,000 projects. This amounted
to 8.5% of total foreign investment in China and placed
it at number 2 position, just behind Hong Kong/Macao,
but ahead of Japan and the U.S. It stabilized in the
last few years with larger projects by large businesses
offsetting declines in smaller businesses. However,
due to discouragement by the government, it is believed
that the real investment must be grossly higher than
what was actually reported. Taiwan's foreign exchange
reserve peaked at $100 billion in 1995 and with yearly
$8 to $10 billion accumulation since then, the current
reserve should be much more than the reported $90
billion now. The discrepancy is assumed to be unreported
in investment in China.
This clearly signals
the over-dependence of the economic relations between
the two countries by any yardstick, not to mention
the fact that it involves a country that treats Taiwan
as an adversary and has consistently tried to smother
and spoil Taiwan's attempt to establish its presence
in the international arenas.
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